Notably, the frontrunner Carolyn Parrish’s decision to abstain from all mayoral debates this month seems to have impacted her lead, causing an eight-point drop since April. This has notably benefited Councillor Dipika Damerla, who has narrowed the gap, trailing Parrish by only five percent. Alvin Tedjo’s campaign also received a two percent boost, coinciding with a decrease in undecided voters.

The surge in voter turnout during the recent advanced polling, with a 42 percent increase compared to the last municipal election, underscores the heightened interest in this race. David Valentin of Liaison Strategies sees this as indicative of a wide-open race, with a significant shift occurring before election day. Valentin notes a sizable pool of undecided voters, particularly among seniors, possibly influenced by Parrish’s debate withdrawal.

Parrish maintains a lead among decided voters, with 29 percent support, followed closely by Damerla at 24 percent and Tedjo at 19 percent. However, Valentin observes Parrish’s lead as less secure than before, indicating a narrowing gap.

Damerla expresses optimism about the recent numbers and the positive reception during her campaign outreach. Meanwhile, the undecided voter rate remains a focal point, especially among seniors, suggesting an opportunity for candidates to sway opinion.

Parrish’s decision to eschew future debates, citing personal threats, comes amid controversy over alleged transphobic and discriminatory remarks. Despite this, Parrish remains convinced that citizens prioritize experience and a solid platform over negative campaigning.

Valentin suggests that if Parrish can regain senior support, her chances of winning remain strong. However, there’s an opening for Damerla and Tedjo to capitalize on momentum and secure votes.

The poll, conducted on May 24-25, surveyed 907 Mississauga residents with a margin of error of +/- 3.22 percent. Early voting opportunities are available on June 1 and June 2, with the election day set for June 10.